Vittorio Messori
"historic breakthrough" here we go again, with the usual parade of analysis, projections, forecasts. This time it's to China, with the passing of its economy on the Japanese. As usual, multitudes of "experts" we will design their own scenarios for the future of the Middle Empire. But the problem of age is the instinct of veering page, to confront the record of the moment, keeping the peace in futurology. Those who, like me, was in high school and then college tra la fine dei Cinquanta e l’inizio dei Sessanta è vaccinatissimo contro il profetismo degli “esperti“.
Tanto per iniziare con un caso personale: nel 1961 la Torino in cui vivevo raggiungeva il milione di abitanti. Sociologi, demografi, economisti, presi sul serio dai politici, prevedevano con assoluta sicurezza che nel Duemila la città avrebbe superato i due milioni. In quell’anno, la popolazione del Comune era di 865.000 persone. Ma, in quegli anni, in una inchiesta su l’Espresso, Eugenio Scalfari profetizzava che, negli anni Ottanta, l’Unione Sovietica avrebbe superato come ricchezza, benessere personale, libertà stessa America e Europa Occidentale. A Scienze Politiche i docenti, with shining eyes, they spoke of the wonders of decolonization, then in place. Provided, above all, a boom in the African economy and culture "black" would have exploded and we were outclassed. Meanwhile, the most revered among sociologists we published the best seller "eclipse of the sacred in secular society." In the near future, swore, we expect the decline of religion: it would be turned off, or reduced to a niche, and Christianity, and the death edict for Islamism was already pronounced. Faith, this, born to Bedouin in the desert, unable to cope with modernity. There could be no place for it, for its decrepit precepts, in the new member Asian and African born of decolonization. Continue
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